Subdivision of the intermediate level (5)th wave shows suggests that a set of 5 waves is either over or may be close to an end
Picking up from our July 2014 analysis and price projections on gold (XAUUSD) we see that the triangle break-down did play out as anticipated. On Friday’s close (14 Nov, 2014) the metal staged one of its best rallies YTD. This came a few days after dipping to levels that were just 30 points shy of our $1100 target called out in our July char. Channeling technique shows a brief overthrow before price pulled back, and that the minor 5th may be over. But the measured move for the triangle at the intermediate (4)th is around 1090 & remains unfulfilled. Also if alternation is to be considered between wave (ii) and (iv) of minor level 5th then the magenta count looks possible since both cannot be so brief in size and time. The magenta count will get invalidated if price overlaps into wave (i) area as per Elliott wave rules. All in all, in a worst case scenario there could be one more push downwards and that we are looking at limited downside in gold in the medium term. The bigger picture is that this intermediate level (5th) in turn completes a primary level A wave as marked in our long term chart from July. Thus a sizable pullback is possible in a 6 months and above the time-frame.